The Cost of Light
The AI build-out is the new heavy industry. Markets keep pricing it as though it were software — weightless, marginless, free to copy.
Letters on capital & the architecture of markets · by A. Vass · new letters, sent slowly
The object of the search: the inflection points of S-curves — found while they are still an argument, not yet a consensus.
Markets rarely break where the crowd is looking. They fail at the points of transfer — where old materials meet new ambition.
Fig. — the S-curve, inflection marked
Systemic stress does not originate at the loudest, most-watched assets.
A Yearbook Of Capital & The Architecture Of Markets
The long end steepens without a tantrum. Term premium rebuilding quietly is the tell, not the level.
Settlement volume is migrating to the boring layers. Attention has left; load has not.
Capex is being financed at one remove — leases, SPVs. The wear will show at the seam, not the name.
Spreads are calm at the index and restless at the junctions. Watch the next quarter-end print.
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